One of the best ways to grasp the worth of one thing is to expertise life with out it. Lately, the Authorities is giving us a crash course on the worth of dependable electrical energy provide. An disagreeable lesson,
however nonetheless a studying alternative.
If we probe the causes of load shedding, the training might be deeper. Load shedding might be eradicated, however at a price. When hydropower declines resulting from periodic drought, the distinction might be made up with turbines working on imported gas, the greenback value of which is decided by world market situations. We are able to have 24×7 electrical energy, however not at an reasonably priced value.
The Authorities created the instant situations for unreliable electrical energy provide by way of mismanagement of the nation’s exterior debt. At this time’s issues will not be attributable to delays in constructing extra producing capability; they’re attributable to the shortage of {dollars} to offer gas for the prevailing producing crops. However there have been deeper weaknesses within the organically developed system that have to be understood.
With benchmark crude oil costs going over $ 100 per barrel, we should rethink our dependence on imported fossil fuels.
Lowering dependence on fossil fuels
Examination of the composition of our imports (Determine 1) exhibits that refined petroleum and crude oil taken collectively is the most important or second largest class of what’s imported. It follows then that lowering the import of petroleum merchandise could be an motion that might fulfill many: these involved about world warming might be made joyful; those that need self-sufficiency would even be happy.
Petroleum imports will not be used solely for electrical energy technology. However the best way to scale back the consumption of petroleum merchandise for transportation additionally entails electrical energy generated by renewables: buses and trains which might be powered by electrical energy; lorries, automobiles, three-wheelers, and two-wheelers which might be powered by electrical energy. Selling electrical automobiles is not sensible except electrical energy comes from renewable sources.
The numerous improve in expenditure for fossil fuels beginning in 2011 (Determine 2) seems correlated with the huge improve within the car inventory after the tip of the battle, resulting in a doubling by 2014. Fortunately, the largest improve was in two wheelers, which don’t take up plenty of highway house and devour much less gas.
Producing electrical energy from renewables does require some imported components similar to low-cost, environment friendly generators and photo-voltaic panels however the prices and dependence is nowhere close to that which exists with imported oil and pure fuel. Actually, it might be doable even to export electrical energy at sure occasions of the day and even for months on finish. However this may require substantial funding within the transmission grid.
Preconditions for rising use of renewables
An economics commentator whose work I comply with had expressed puzzlement at “demand for electrical energy is larger than provide” being given as a cause for load shedding. Others had expressed outrage at some Fb posts that I had shared, which said that photo voltaic and wind couldn’t present an entire answer to our vitality woes. These responses by well-meaning and clever commentators made me realise the necessity for a greater understanding of how the electrical energy is generated, transmitted, and distributed.
For all sensible functions utilizing at the moment reasonably priced expertise, electrical energy have to be handled as one thing that can’t be saved (however see dialogue of pumped storage under). That implies that it have to be generated similtaneously folks devour electrical energy by activating lights or home equipment. Peak consumption in Sri Lanka (within the night hours ranging from round 6:30 p.m.) is round 2 or 2.5 occasions that of lowest use which is round 1000 MW.
That necessitates an inexpensive supply of baseload electrical energy that may be drawn upon all through the day. As well as, we should have different sources that may be mobilised as demand will increase. One would suppose that the main hydroelectric crops which have been constructed on the principle rivers which generate low-cost electrical energy that’s unaffected by world market costs and the worth of the rupee may function the supply of baseload energy. However there are constraints, similar to competing calls for from agriculture. The climate impacts hydropower, as we’re experiencing now.
Subsequently, planners prior to now argued for coal as the best baseload for Sri Lanka. If Norochcholai doesn’t hold breaking down and operates optimally, it can provide 900 MW repeatedly whether or not or not the rains come. However it does break down, and it seems there have been irregularities in coal purchases. Coal, even when procured on long-term contracts on the lowest doable value, nonetheless have to be paid for in {dollars}.
There are those that argue that Sri Lanka has loads of wind and solar, and we will resolve all issues by shifting to wind and solar. However the easy reality is that these are intermittent sources. Photo voltaic doesn’t produce electrical energy when the solar doesn’t shine and produces much less when clouds cowl the solar. Wind can produce all through the day and night time, however there are occasions when the wind dies down. It requires complicated system controls to mix these intermittent sources right into a centralised system designed for big, secure and controllable turbines.
International locations have included large quantities of intermittent renewable sources. In 2019, 47% of Denmark’s electrical energy got here from wind. However they’ve a really refined grid that’s able to dealing with intermittent energy sources, and so they use interconnections with different nationwide methods to assist steadiness the system. So, for instance, when extra energy is generated by the Danish wind generators, it’s used to pump water again up into reservoirs in Norway and Sweden (a technique of storing electrical energy within the type of water generally known as pumped storage), which might then be run by way of generators once more to provide extra electrical energy when wanted. But with all that, Danish shoppers pay extra for electrical energy than their neighbours.
Equally, if Sri Lanka is to extend using intermittent energy sources, we must improve the grid and the system management centre’s software program. Given the difficulties of synchronising the frequencies to 1 massive plant similar to Victoria, it might even be essential to step by step convert the grid to direct present. If the Sri Lankan grid is related through a excessive voltage direct present cable to the Southern Indian grid, the a lot bigger mixed system can take in a higher quantity of wind and solar energy.
Interconnecting doesn’t imply {that a} nation provides up on producing its personal electrical energy. It merely implies that marginal quantities of electrical energy will move in both route when it’s advantageous to 2 (or extra) methods. The truth that the peaks are totally different within the two methods will also be used to scale back the excessive prices incurred at peak.
It might be essential to immediately hyperlink revenues derived from regulated costs to those that make the substantial investments wanted for the grid. This can virtually essentially require a restructuring of the present ungainly, unresponsive, and cash shedding CEB in a fashion that permits the transmission unit to be run effectively.
All these choices require cautious research when it comes to prices, advantages and vitality safety. The relations between Denmark and its neighbours are such that each one the events might be assured in regards to the contracts being revered and any disputes that come up being settled in a good method. We should be sure that the interconnection agreements with India have all these safeguards. The precedent of India’s interconnections with Bhutan exhibits that mutual interdependence is achievable in South Asia. The expertise in Europe the place interconnection, together with over lengthy distances throughout water, is rising quickly even after Brexit, must be studied.