Jon Rahm is on a tear proper now, profitable 4 of his final six begins. He goes to a venue that’s primarily constructed for his booming drives and correct lengthy irons. He’s going to make betting and taking part in DFS this week, very difficult. Hopefully the books grasp some juicy numbers on the market on everyone however Rahm, and hopefully he does not proceed to win golf tournaments at this ridiculous fee. Numerous hoping, however right here we go.
We’re going to ask a number of questions that may information us by a mess of areas that impression how we go about handicapping an occasion. We take a look at historic odds of winners, conventional climate, abilities that matter, and some extra fascinating issues. The objective of this text is to give you a high-level understanding of the nuances related to this week’s course and gamers.
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Table of Contents
#1. Canines or Dimes?
Have been the chances of the previous couple of winners nearer to a dime or have been the underdogs sniffing across the high of the leaderboard?
The percentages of the final three winners have been a mixture of lengthy pictures and a semi-favorite at 60, 25, and 70-1.
Favorites have sniffed across the high of the board during the last three years.
Ending positions of the golfers with the shortest odds to win:
#2. Historical past or Thriller?
Is course historical past a powerful predictor of success or is that this week going to be a thriller?
Course historical past is likely one of the strongest on tour.
These are the golfers with the most effective common strokes gained (min six rounds):
These are the golfers with the worst common strokes gained (min six rounds):
#3. Birdies or Bogeys?
What sort of scoring circumstances can we count on this week?
The final 5 winners of this occasion shot -15, -14, -15, -21, and -10.
The most effective strokes gained common on straightforward programs:
The worst strokes gained common on straightforward programs:
#4. Weak or Peak?
Is the energy of the sphere at its peak or is it weak?
The full Official World Golf Rating factors whole for this week’s area is 150.88 (earlier than updating for any factors from AMEX). Final week’s whole OWGR in a 156-man area was 171.93.
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#5. AM or PM?
What’s the climate often like at this occasion?
Traditionally, the climate in San Diego, California doesn’t get a lot hotter than 75 levels and wind can get into the mid teenagers. Regulate the climate for the week as we now have seen climate trigger delays right here previously.
#6. Distance or Route?
Is distance or course a very powerful stat off the tee?
The American Categorical and its three totally different programs are statistically extra favorable to those who are correct off the tee.
The most effective Strokes Gained off the tee within the area:
The golfers with essentially the most accuracy off the tee:
The golfers with essentially the most distance off the tee:
#7. Wedges or Woods?
Which proximity buckets are going to see essentially the most divots this week?
Simply shy of 60% of strategy pictures come from 125-200 yards.
These are the golfers that fee out the most effective when taking the above proximity buckets and prorating them.
#8. Sand or Grandstand?
Are errant strategy pictures going to wind up within the sand or grandstands?
This course has plenty of thick tough surrounding greens. As it’s nonetheless early within the season, and with across the inexperienced proximity numbers being VERY statistically noisy, do not take these numbers for gospel. We’re assessing these metrics to get a big-picture really feel for who excels out of the tough. These are the most effective golfers across the inexperienced:
These are the golfers who excel out the tough:
These are the golfers who wrestle out the tough:
#9. Bermuda or Bent?
Are we placing on Bermuda or Bentgrass ?
Neither. We’re placing on Poa and these are the most effective putters on Poa during the last 50 rounds:
The worst putters on Bermuda during the last 50:
#10. Mannequin or Maniac
Are there golfers who the mannequin isn’t liking as a lot because the Maniac?
Beneath are the highest 10 golfers in my mannequin:
These are a number of golfers who the Maniac likes, who the mannequin missed a little bit:
Hopefully, this helped you put together for the chances dropping tomorrow morning! Good luck this week, and as at all times, could the chances be ever in your favor!!!
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