TSM Has a One-in-33 Million Likelihood to Qualify for Playoffs

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A Reddit person outlines the one state of affairs that TSM makes it to the LCS Spring 2022 Playoffs, and it’s not wanting good for TSM followers.

Self-professed lover of standing maths u/i-am-grok took to the League of Legends Reddit to debate the solo (no pun meant) state of affairs that Crew Solo Mid makes it to playoffs. To set the scene: there are 10 groups within the LCS. Six groups will qualify for the LCS Spring 2022 Playoffs. Thus far, just one group is locked for Playoffs: Cloud9. TSM is in tenth place, with a 2-11 standing. It’s nothing however an uphill battle and the TSM roster has their work minimize out for them.

For TSM to qualify for Playoffs and not using a tiebreaker, they first want to achieve 7 wins. This implies successful all of their remaining matches, that are in opposition to Cloud9, Immortals Progressive, 100 Thieves, Counter Logic Gaming, and Crew Liquid. Even when they by some means handle this gargantuan process, it’s nonetheless solely half of the work achieved. The 4 groups above TSM are the next:

  • Evil Geniuses (6W – 7L)
  • Counter Logic Gaming (5W – 8L)
  • Golden Guardians (5W – 8L)
  • Immortals Progressive (4W – 9L)

All of those groups want to remain below 7 wins every. Within the last two weeks of LCS Spring 2022 Group Stage, all groups nonetheless have 5 video games left. TSM making Playoffs implies that all 4 of the groups above lose all of their video games the place they don’t play one another. In different phrases, if any of the 4 groups above play Cloud9, Crew Liquid, FlyQuest, Dignitas, or 100 Thieves, they should lose. There are 16 video games that fulfill this situation, and TSM wants the only chance to nonetheless have a shot.

However that’s not all. There are precisely 4 video games that occur inside this group of 4 groups:

  • IMT vs CLG
  • GG vs EG
  • GG vs IMT
  • EG vs CLG

As beforehand talked about, all of those groups want to shut out the Group Stage at 6 wins or decrease, which is simply doable given the next permutation:

  • IMT win vs CLG
  • GG win vs EG
  • IMT win vs GG
  • CLG win vs EG

All in all, there are 33,554,432 outcomes nonetheless doable given the 25 video games within the subsequent two weekends of LCS. TSM solely makes it to Playoffs with out tiebreakers in a single state of affairs.

For the non-TSM followers, the soonest TSM will get eradicated is when Evil Geniuses win in opposition to Dignitas and Cloud9 win in opposition to TSM this weekend.

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